Fantasy Insider: Analysis for The Heritage

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If you're looking for an explanation, then Geoff Ogilvy's stumble in the ocean and subsequent withdrawal from the season-opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii was an omen. Maybe he was wearing Greg Brady's tiki necklace.

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THE HERITAGE

Tee Times
TOUR Report
Inside the Course
Power Rankings
Choosing Sides

See, over the last six events, none of the golfers in the No.-1 slot in my Power Rankings have posted top 25s, and some of you have noticed, not that I haven't. Yes, Ogilvy sat atop the feature for the season's lid-lifter at Kapalua, but I rebounded with three consecutive top 10s. From the top spot for the season, I have five top 10s and three other top 25s. Of course, in my role, slumps are inexcusable, and I own up to that, but the half-life of your patience and understanding is shorter than Robert Garrigus' putter. And well it should be.

After recording my weekly segment on Monday hitting the top five of my Power Rankings for "Talk of the TOUR" with John Swantek (which you can hear here), I shared that my current dry spell even led one of my Twitter followers (@steelerfanaz) to submit a special request not to list Luke Donald No. 1 for The Heritage. Said Swanny: "You know what you are? You're 'The Cooler.'" Classic.

Aaron Baddeley better beware, as I've sidled up next to him this week.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Charles Howell III ... An annual paradox of expectations -- he's "only" and "already" 31 years of age -- Chucky Three Sticks is having another rock-solid year of fulfilling his potential as it relates to us. With six top 20s in 11 starts and nearly $700K in the bank, we aren't complaining. Moreover, he ranks 14th in both greens hit and adjusted scoring average, and has cashed in each of his last three starts here (two for top 25s), so continue to ride him as a final cornerstone in your format.

12. Ben Crane ... All five of his paydays this year are top 25s. He's also cashed in his last six starts here, although hasn't posted a top 10. Currently third on TOUR in greens hit.

13. Trevor Immelman ... Enters with consecutive top 15s for the first time since the conclusion of his 2008 schedule, and he's cashed in six straight. His 2011 stats still reflect more inconsistency than the more recent righting of the ship (just 160th in greens in regulation), but he ranked T7 and T18 in GIR in his last two starts, respectively. Also sat T13 in greens hit here last year.

14. Boo Weekley ... Impossible to ignore his track record here -- four top 15s in as many starts, including both of his PGA TOUR victories. Wish he was playing better of late, seeing that he's cashed in just two of his last seven starts, banking just over $30K in the process, and hasn't broken par in his last eight rounds, but he leads the TOUR in total driving and sits fifth in greens in regulation. Harbour Town's tiny greens help hide his putting woes.

15. Stewart Cink ... The two-time champion of this event is 10-for-11 at Harbour Town with six top 15s, including last year's T14. His late entry into last week's Valero Texas Open after missing the cut at the Masters was undone with a wind-aided 78 in the second round; he faded to finish T59.

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Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Luke Donald (2); Jim Furyk (3); Matt Kuchar (4); Ricky Barnes (5); Brian Gay (8)

Group B ... Webb Simpson (6); Rickie Fowler (7); Ben Crane (12)

Group C ... Aaron Baddeley (1); Fredrik Jacobson (9); Brandt Snedeker (10); Charles Howell III (11); Trevor Immelman (13); Boo Weekley (14); Stewart Cink (15)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Kevin Na (B) ... After endearing himself to legions of new fans thanks to his 16 on the par-4 ninth hole at TPC San Antonio on Thursday, his gallery was likely one of the more entertaining places to be on Friday. What's great is how he's dealt with the situation publicly, which just may have ripped through some emotional scar tissue after numerous close calls. He wouldn't normally ping my radar at a track like Harbour Town, but I buy into new beginnings of sorts. Plus, he has posted three top 20s here in seven starts, just not since 2008 (T17).

Mark Wilson (C) ... Yes, he's No. 1 in earnings and FedExCup Points, but he still doesn't possess the kind of cachet that precludes him from qualifying as a dark horse. Ranks 16th on TOUR in fairways hit, eighth in greens in regulation and seventh in scrambling. Took a week off after missing the cut in his first Masters.

Scott Verplank (C) ... Grinding through his wrist injury. Shot just 6-over 294 at TPC San Antonio despite ranking outside the top 65 in distance off the tee, greens hit, putting and birdies. Making his 17th consecutive start at Harbour Town. Last year's missed cut was his first in 11 appearances.

Francesco Molinari (C) ... First-timer here missed the cut at the Masters after finishing a disappointing T73 in Houston. In 14 rounds in PGA TOUR events this year, he's hit 76 percent of his fairways and over 78 percent of his greens in regulation, which is why he has the reputation of a ball-striker's ball-striker. It won't matter that he could be hitting first in most fairways since Harbour Town's maximum yardage is 6,973.

Bryce Molder (B) ... Elevated from his spot in "Danger" last week. Ended an 0-for-4 skid with a T36 at the Valero Texas Open. Given the irrelevance of distance off the tee at Harbour Town, this is a comfort zone. En route to a T22 here in his first appearance last year, played the first 36 holes in bogey-free 6-under; also closed with a 69 that included eight birdies.

Camilo Villegas (B) ... Do not adjust your monitor. This is a nod to course-history buffs that will only circle the Colombian's pair of top 10s here over the last three years, including a share of fifth place in 2010. The fact remains that he's cashed in just two of seven events with cuts this year, has battled a sore back and sits T190 with Mike Weir in the all-around ranking. I'm holding my breath.

Zack Miller (C) ... More of a spotlight-and-follow entry than an endorsement. I'll be observing how the rookie manages the course given that he's long off the tee, but I'm more interested in how his underrated touch around the greens meshes with the course profile. His lone top 10 occurred at Pebble Beach, which is near his home and shares the dynamic of limited real estate on its greens with Harbour Town. Miller also showed some flashes of dynamite form in Houston three weeks ago.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Brendan Steele (C) ... Must expect a letdown after his impressive breakthrough in San Antonio, where he missed 30 greens in regulation, yet swallowed just eight holes over par.

Brian Davis (A) ... Last year's runner-up carded a field-low four bogeys of the 72 golfers that completed four rounds, and he certainly has the moxie to spike again this week, but he hasn't posted a top 10 in nearly 11 months.

Ernie Els (A) ... Putting continues to trouble The Big Easy, and it has to be messing with his confidence. He has such a strong record here (seven top 10s) that there is an expectation for a rebound this week, but there are more reliable options in our world.

Ian Poulter (B) ... First visit to Harbour Town since 2006. Has not had a top-10 finish in his last five starts and In his last 16 rounds, has just one round in the 60s.

Spencer Levin (B) ... Since his closing 76 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his actual scoring average is 75.6 over five rounds. He missed both cuts in Texas bracketing the Masters, so although he's posted top 15s in both starts here, he's a wise pass this week.

Heath Slocum (A) ... In a vacuum, he's a superb fit since he ranks fourth on TOUR in greens in regulation and has cashed in his last five starts here, including last year's tie for eighth, but he's missed the cut in six of his last eight starts. That's three times as many MCs as last year's season total.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Richard S. Johnson (B) ... Withdrew after 27 holes in San Antonio due to a lingering shoulder injury that also forced him out after one round of the Transitions Championship last month.

Garth Mulroy (C) ... The South African isn't in the field, but you may have seen that he withdrew during his second round at last week's stop in San Antonio. The good news is that he's not injured. The better news is that he left the tournament to travel to Raleigh, North Carolina to be with his wife, who would deliver the couple's second child on Saturday afternoon. For the record, Mulroy is down to two starts on his Minor Medical Extension.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Vaughn Taylor (B) ... He fell 34 spots on the leaderboard on Sunday to finish T44 in San Antonio after his closing 77.

Tom Gillis (B) ... Has withdrawn after the commitment deadline after each of the last three events for which he's qualified. No information has been released to explain why.

Matt Jones (B) ... Has missed his last two cuts, and save a T15 at Pebble Beach, the Aussie has underperformed all year.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.