Fantasy Insider: Analysis for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist
Quite of bit was said last week of Copperhead's reputation as a ball-striker's paradise. That is misleading. While I believe that the casual fan thinks of fairways and greens as the elements of ball-striking, fantasy gamers must be more responsible than that.
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Ball-striking is the combination of total driving and greens in regulation. Total driving is the blend of distance and accuracy off the tee. Of the golfers that finished inside the top 14 on the leaderboard at the Transitions Championship, only three ranked inside the top 25 for the week in fairways hit -- Scott Stallings, T12; Chris Couch, T18; Justin Rose, T3 -- so, the argument for ball-striking, even colloquially, was not supported. (Winner Gary Woodland was T52 in accuracy, but seventh in distance.)
As I mentioned in last week's Power Rankings, success at Copperhead is determined by hitting greens and avoiding bogeys. Woodland ranked T29 in GIR and suffered just seven bogeys. Runner-up, Webb Simpson finished a sloppy T52 in greens hit, but led the field in putting (a short-term dynamic extremely difficult to project, even from a guy best known for his short game and putting), and he also had just seven bogeys. And Stallings placed T11 in greens. He overcame 11 holes over-par with an eagle and co-leading 22 birdies. His effort is a mild exception. I wouldn't expect a similar result at next year's edition, current rookie status notwithstanding.
Looking ahead now to this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, it is the final tournament in Yahoo!'s Winter Segment. "Gimme" holds a slim six-point margin over "Alarcher," 1,983-1,977. The lovely "Hemroid" sits in third place, with 1,960 points. Look for my primer on the Spring Segment soon.
The top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings following this weekend's slate of tournaments worldwide will gain entry into the Masters. The final berth will be reserved for the winner of next week's Shell Houston Open.
Power Rankings Plus
11. Brandt Snedeker ... Fared extremely well in his first start as a new daddy, finishing solo fourth at Copperhead (his third top 10 of the year), where he ranked a typical fourth in putting. He's 4-for-4 at Bay Hill, but hasn't posted a top 10, which is why he didn't crack the Power Rankings. Otherwise, it's time to hop on his back again.
12. Rickie Fowler ... Creates quite the conundrum given that he's 40th on the money list, but ranks 189th in fairways hit and 164th in greens in regulation. Getting by on all sorts of short-game splits, the most impressive of which is putting (he's 13th). Two top 10s this year. One was in the Match Play, where he went 2-1; the other was in the 66-man WGC-Cadillac Championship (solo eighth), but he closed out Doral with an eagle and 11 birdies in the final two rounds.
13. Jim Furyk ... Creeping back. Recorded just six bogeys at Copperhead en route to a T13, his best finish since the limited-field opener at Kapalua. Finished T11 here last year, with just eight holes over par (seven bogeys, one double).
14. Robert Allenby ... Top 25s in each of his last three stroke-play starts, including a T15 at Doral two weeks ago. His numbers are down across the board, but he knows what to do with Bay Hill, with top 15s here the last two years.
15. Charl Schwartzel ... Turned a forgettable week at Doral into a top 25 thanks to a Sunday 67. Three top 25s in as many starts this year, including a 1-1 record at the Match Play. Still too much of an unknown commodity in fantasy circles in the U.S., but deserves this perch this week based on his form dating back to the end of 2010.
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Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)
Group A ... Dustin Johnson (1); Martin Laird (4); Graeme McDowell (6); Tiger Woods (9); Jim Furyk (13)
Group B ... Justin Rose (2); Hunter Mahan (3); Kevin Na (5); Rickie Fowler (12); Robert Allenby (14); Charl Schwartzel (15)
Group C ... Gary Woodland (7); Chris Couch (8); Zach Johnson (10); Brandt Snedeker (11)
Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)
John Senden (B) ... Guess who's finding his putting stroke again ... The lunar calendar could be set to this guy. The Aussie continues to uphold his reputation as a streaky putter, finding some range at Copperhead to post a season-best T15. Overall, he's 26th in greens hit and has cashed in each of his last three appearances at Bay Hill, including a T25 last year and T4 in 2009.
J.J. Henry (B) ... Solid roster filler for salary formats as he's 8-for-8 on the year with four top 25s, including a T20 at the Transitions where he led the field in greens in regulation. Sits 24th on TOUR in GIR and 33rd in the all-around.
Sean O'Hair (B) ... I've fielded many an email over time suggesting that the site of multiple successes is just what the doctor ordered when above-average talents like O'Hair are slumping. Given his slow start this season, I'm leaning on the hope that Bay Hill is a soft landing. He's posted top 25s here in each of his last four showings, including a solo second in 2009 and T3 in 2008. Otherwise, there is nothing on paper that would demand your attention.
Steve Marino (B) ... A curious withdrawal prior to last week's Transitions, he's cashed in all four of his starts at Bay Hill, including a personal-best T11 a year ago. Currently 24th on TOUR in the all-around and with a pair of top fives on the books this season.
Pat Perez (B) ... Received a sponsor exemption on Monday. Owns an 8-for-8 record at Bay Hill with three top 10s, including a T4 in 2009. He's missed his last three cuts dating back to Pebble Beach, but ranks a serviceable 65th in greens and 61st in putting.
Chad Campbell (B) ... Pair of top 30s on the Florida Swing isn't as impressive as the fact that he arrives at Bay Hill with seven consecutive rounds of par or better in tow. He's a former winner here and hasn't missed a cut in eight tries. Since his victory in 2004, he hasn't finished worse than T22 (twice). He didn't enter last year.
Ben Curtis (B) ... Gets your attention with two top-six paydays in his last four starts here. Of course, he missed the cut in between both, too, but that's vintage Curtis for you. And he's never a stats guy, so you're investing on blind faith, which is often fantasy golf for you. His 69 in the second round of the Transitions, where he missed the cut by three strokes, was his first sub-70 score in any of the first three rounds in all of his five starts this year (12 rounds total).
Danger (Yahoo! Group)
Ernie Els (A) ... This isn't so much of a fade as it is that he didn't crack the Power Rankings Plus. His T15 at Doral is his best finish in five starts in a season that has sputtered a bit, relative to him, including a five-week break before the Match Play. His iron game continues to flourish, and he's third on TOUR in greens, but the putts haven't been dropping.
Phil Mickelson (A) ... Coming off a career-worst T55 in the WGC-Cadillac Championship. (He hadn't finished outside the top 25 at Doral since 1996.) He finished dead-last in greens in regulation that week as well. Certainly, he's capable of flipping the switch at any time, but the room has remained primarily dark since he opened with a runner-up at the Farmers in late January.
Sergio Garcia (C) ... Would have been much more impressed with the T15 at Copperhead had his halves been reversed. That is, he opened going bogey-free 9-under through 38 holes, but played the remaining 34 in 1-over as his putting regressed. While he's posted five top 10s at Bay Hill and has missed the cut just once in nine appearances, wait until he puts four rounds together.
Brendon de Jonge (B) ... Failed the gut-check on the back nine on Sunday at Copperhead, going 4-over on his last seven holes to finish with a share of fifth place. He's still a long-term, underrated fantasy stud, but he has yet to break 74 in four rounds at Bay Hill, so it's time to give him a breather.
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D.J. Trahan (B) ... Careful here. Course history buffs need to look beyond last year's T7 here. He had already posted four top 20s prior to that. This year, he's missed four of seven cuts and has failed to finish in a top 45. He's much shorter and less accurate off the tee, and he's hitting nearly eight percent fewer greens in regulation, a staggering stat.
Edoardo Molinari (C) ... As with Trahan, beware Molinari's share of second place here last year. Has cooled considerably since his sudden rise from the Challenge Tour in 2009. His only top 35 in five stroke-play starts this year is a T8 at the inaugural Volvo Golf Champions at quirky Royal Golf Club in Bahrain. (He went 1-1 at the Match Play.)
Ian Poulter (B) ... The ultimate sniper. Hasn't posted a top 20 in a full-field event since losing the Dubai World Championship after dropping his ball on his coin on the green in November. Moreover, he's 1-for-5 at Bay Hill (T48, 2008).
Medic! (Yahoo! Group)
Scott Verplank (C) ... Hoping to make his first start on the Florida Swing since withdrawing early from the Honda due to his lingering wrist injury.
Boo Weekley (C) ... First start since withdrawing after 12 holes in Puerto Rico on March 10 due to a hand injury. Solid record at Bay Hill, with three top 25s in the last four years. Has just one top 25 in 2011 (T13, Bob Hope).
Richard S. Johnson (B) ... Forced to withdraw after his opening round (79) at Copperhead due to a shoulder injury. It didn't stop him from biking 100 kilometers on Friday, however. Still, avoid and shelve for a cozier track.
Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)
Mike Weir (C) ... Officially withdrew after the commitment deadline, but all reports were that he'd rest his left wrist after having a cyst drained anyway. His next scheduled start is the Masters on April 7.
Louis Oosthuizen (A) ... Forced to withdraw from his title defense of this week's Andalucia Open due to an eye infection. Scheduled to return to competition at next week's Shell Houston Open.
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