Wyndham offers last shot to make Playoffs

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Michael Letzig currently owns the 125th (last) spot to make the Playoffs going into Wyndham.

GREENSBORO, N.C. -- A year ago, Kevin Stadler arrived at the Wyndham Championship on the outside looking in.

He ranked 133rd in FedExCup points, and with just the top 125 making the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup, he knew a big week was necessary. Otherwise, he'd have to sit out the four Playoffs events.

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Stadler delivered. He was part of a three-man playoff for the title at Sedgefield, and while he didn't get the win -- Ryan Moore won with a birdie on the third playoff hole -- Stadler's only top-10 finish of the season did earn him enough points to move to 76th in the standings.

In fact, four other players outside the top 125 heading into Wyndham managed to make the playoffs last year -- David Mathis, Chris Riley, Todd Hamilton and Jeff Maggert.

So the moral of this story, at least for the players in this week's field, is this: There's always a chance.

Any player in the field will move into the top 80 with a win. That's good news for past major winners Lee Janzen (currently 146th in points), Trevor Immelman (154), Fred Couples (164), John Daly (208) and Todd Hamilton (210).

Meanwhile, any player currently ranked between 126th to 142nd will qualify for the Playoffs with a top-10 finish. That's good news for eight-time TOUR winner Mike Weir (126) and 2009 PLAYERS champion Henrik Stenson (133). Of course, the bad news is that Weir hasn't had a top-10 since his sixth-place finish in his first start of the year at the Bob Hope Classic, while Stenson's lone top-10 finish came at the British Open in July when he tied for third.

Weir, in fact, has never missed the Playoffs. In the first year, he finished 87th in the final FedExCup rankings, then was sixth in 2008 and 29th last year.

Even if Weir should make the Playoffs, however, his odds of reaching THE TOUR Championship will be long. In the first three years of the Playoffs, no player who has started the Wyndham Championship outside the top 125 in points has advanced to East Lake.

The farthest any player has gone is Martin Laird, who ranked 208th in points when he began his first round at Sedgefield in 2008. By the end of the week, Laird tied for fourth and went only to finish 67th in the Playoffs.

While those players outside the top 125 are eager to make their final push, those inside the top 125 are hoping to at least maintain their positions.

Kin Lo, a PGA TOUR FedExCup expert, has come up with various Playoff scenarios for every pro. According to his calculations, only the players ranked 96th or higher are mathematically safe and guaranteed to finish inside the top 125.

He rates the players between 97th and 120th as "probables" to make the Playoffs, based on projected calculations on the cutoff total for points. Lo estimates that the player who comes out of Wyndham in the 125th spot will have between 387 and 395 points. Michael Letzig, the current player on the 125th bubble, goes into Wyndham with 366 points.

That should bode well for Turning Stone Resort Championship winner Bill Lunde (97), U.S. Ryder Cup Captain Corey Pavin (107), two-time FedExCup champion Tiger Woods (108) and former British Open winner Ben Curtis (110), the four players who are not in this week's field and not guaranteed one of the Playoffs spots. Despite their absences this week, their point totals should be enough to get them through to The Barclays.

A year ago, Stadler and the other four players who moved into the top 125 in the final week ranked from 126-136, while the five players who lost their Playoffs spots were ranked between 119-125. Lo said the "expected range" for the bubble is 115-140 this week.

While the focus is on the top 125, players in the Wyndham field who are assured of Playoff spots still have plenty of motivation for performing well this week.

Getting into the top 30 to start the Playoffs is key to reaching THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola and getting a chance to claim the FedExCup.

Although FedExCup points are multipled by five for Playoffs events, last year just seven of the 30 players who advanced to East Lake started the Playoffs outside the top 30.

There are 40 players at Sedgefield this week who could move into the top 30 with a win. Meanwhile, the defending champion Moore could climb into the top 30 with a top-10 finish, while Fredrik Jacobson, Kevin Na, Brandt Snedeker, Brian Gay and Marc Leishman could move into the top 30 by finishing first or second.